The Thursday Question 3:3: Why the teachers strike is a big big risk for the UCP
Let's assume the ATA is planning to hijack the UCP's Edmonton convention
The Thursday Question usually focuses on federal politics and big issues of governing. Today’s issue is a departure, but the lessons apply across Canada, so even if you do not live in Alberta, read on.
Alberta looks to be heading towards a teachers strike. The province and the teachers union bargaining team reached an agreement a few weeks ago, but in a stunning rebuke to their leaders union rank and file rejected the deal and did so decisively. Almost 95% of teachers turned out and 90% of those voting voted to reject the deal negotiated by their leaders. The provincial government responded in tones of regret. Finance minister Nate Horner: “I am left questioning whether the union fully understands what their members are seeking. If teachers did not want this deal, then why was it proposed by the ATA in the first place?”. Unless the union can repair its internal disconnect in the coming days, Alberta will see its first province-wide teachers strike on Monday.
The provincial government appears to be settling in for a long strike. It has decided to compensate parents for some of the costs they will face as a result of the stoppage. (By way of full disclosure: my daughter works at a local high school tutoring company that stands to benefit from that compensation.) The union has announced that despite collecting dues for many years, its strike fund is too small to pay meaningful strike pay. The only good news is that the provincial legislature returns to work on October 23 and can legislate teachers back to work that week.
Without strike pay, a three-week strike will hurt teachers more than it hurts the provincial UCP. And that puts the UCP in a strong position.
Or does it?
Play out the scenario. Teachers walk out Monday. The province compensates parents. MLAs return on October 23 and pass back-to-work legislation within a day or two.
The timing is perfect. “Early bird” registration for the UCP convention runs until October 31. Any teacher can join the UCP once they’re forced back to work, pay just $169 to register for the convention, and get a vote. The UCP convention will be held in late November at the Edmonton Expo Centre. That is also a perfect location, right where the UCP is weak on the ground and the teachers union is strong.