The Thursday Question 2:40: Consequences
The Canadian general election of 2025
As of Tuesday afternoon, the results of the general election are firming up. The Liberals could still win a majority in the new House. If not, the Lib-Dem coalition will hold a working majority. Mr. Carney will win a confidence vote when the House returns and continue as prime minister.
And his government will probably endure. The NDP is in worse financial shape than it was on January 1, when its finances were dire. Its registered agent will now struggle to avoid disappearing into a bankruptcy. Even if it satisfies its creditors, it will have a hard time financing the NDP’s next campaign. Anyone who thinks they might force another federal election before 2029 should read up on the history of the Bracken House Trust. The NDP is going to have to maintain Mr. Carney in office regardless of what he does. The LibDems could even repeal the fixed election date law so they can postpone the next election to 2030. If the NDP survives, it will need time to raise funds. And to find a leader. There is no reason to predict a rise in the NDP’s fortunes. Cohabitation with the Liberals did not serve the party well over the last four years, but absent a political miracle worker the NDP has more to endure.
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As I noted in The Thursday Question 2:38, we have not seen minor parties do so poorly and two majors so dominate since the 1940s and 1950s. Outside Quebec and some other small pockets, Canadian politics is now marked by two-party competition.
(Graph by author based on data collected by Andy Heard, www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/ and preliminary 2025 results from elections.ca on Apr 29, 2025)
Which is why the argument about 2004, that Mr. Poilievre needs a second election to prevail, are so inapt. Set aside the fact that Mr. Harper never enjoyed a 26-point lead and then saw it evaporate. Set aside how Mr. Harper overhauled his team between 2004 and 2006 - parting ways with his campaign manager, policy strategist, several communications teams, OLO chief of staff, pollster, and so on. Set aside how gently he courted NDP leader Jack Layton to topple the Martin government. Set aside how carefully he ran the 2005 party convention and how quietly his operation prevailed in the leadership review. Set aside his outreach to provincial PC leaders and, after the departure of Belinda Stronach, the former PC poohbahs that had backed her. Set aside his outreach to Joe Clark and Lowell Murray. Set aside his success in getting Irving Gerstein AND David Angus AND Nicole Eaton AND Bob Alexander all raising money for him on a single team. From 2004 to 2006, Mr. Harper rarely passed a day without preparing to win a multi-party election. The 2030 election probably won’t be a multi-party contest outside Quebec, and that changes everything.
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Conservatives spent the last dozen years underestimating first Mr. Trudeau and now Mr. Carney (mea culpa – four months ago I didn’t think Mr. Carney had enough time to turn around Liberal fortunes). It’s time to stop doing that.
Mr. Carney has a free hand to govern as he wishes.